POLITICAL observations & opinions

* if Obama pulls this off, and today it begins to look as if he might, his political acumen will jump to legendary status … and the country will reap enormous benefits from his reasoned, intelligent, informed and courageous leadership … UPDATE … the one clear winner from all this seems to be President Obama

Posted by Lew Weinstein on August 1, 2011



Jay Newton-Small at TIME.com writes (8/1/11) …

  • the one clear winner from all this seems to be President Obama.
  • If the bill passes, he can now claim the mantle of fiscal conservatism – a surefire defense to ubiquitous Republican accusations of socialism and big government.
  • If the debt ceiling were breached and the economy tanked, he likely would’ve borne the greatest political price.
  • But by swooping in and making the deal at the last minute, Obama can say he saved the day.


the contest is fascinating ... and critical for our future


First Read from NBC News … By NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower

*** A game of leverage: Yesterday, we said that who’s up one day in this debt debate can quickly go down the next. And that’s precisely what happened on Thursday night, when House Speaker John Boehner — who had appeared likely to get his debt legislation through the House — had to postpone the vote. The reason: GOP leaders simply didn’t have the votes to pass it. Why does all of this matter, even though Boehner’s bill is supposedly D.O.A. in the Senate? It’s about leverage. Had Republican passed their bill last night, it would have put pressure on the White House and Democrats, even though Senate Dems had vowed to oppose the Boehner bill. But with the GOP’s failure last night, Democrats suddenly have much more leverage than they did yesterday. Expect Mitch McConnell and a band of frustrated Senate Republicans (whom McConnell is simply trying to keep calm) to give Boehner a couple of hours this morning to try to pass his legislation again. But if that doesn’t happen, Senate Republicans might end up cutting a deal with Harry Reid and the Democrats — moving things faster than any of us thought possible.

*** Final House bill will need GOP and Dem votes: Here’s another reason why Democrats suddenly have more leverage in this debt debate: We’ve heard that House leaders weren’t trying to flip just the last 10 or 15 votes yesterday. GOP leaders had already moved DOZENS of House Republican votes from “maybe” “no” to “yes.” What does that mean: There just aren’t enough House GOP votes — by themselves — to raise the debt ceiling. The eventual compromise bill is going to take 105 to 110 House Republican votes, as well as 105 to 110 House Democratic votes. So message to Kevin McCarthy and Steny Hoyer: Time to roll up your sleeves; Monday could be the REALLY long day.

read more at … http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/07/29/7195706-first-thoughts-a-game-of-leverage



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