POLITICAL observations & opinions

* MSNBC First Read electoral map

Posted by Lew Weinstein on October 20, 2008

From MSNBC First Read

*** Two Weeks Out:

  • There are no significant changes to this week’s NBC electoral map. Obama continues to hold a 264-163 lead over McCain, which is unchanged from last week.
    • The slight changes: We moved Georgia, North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from Likely McCain to Lean McCain.
    • Also, we almost moved McCain’s home state of Arizona to the Lean column; the state would have been a battleground had McCain not been on the ticket.
    • And keep an eye on South Carolina – yes, South Carolina. The historic African-American turnout appears to be happening and could make it a single-digit race there.

In sum, the political winds are still at Obama’s back.

  • As for the Toss-up states and any that are teetering toward Obama: Colorado, Florida, and Virginia all seem to tilting the Democrat’s way, but we haven’t moved then yet because all three states have histories of Republican candidates over-performing polls. Unlike other maps, ours is not poll-driven. Polls are only a part of how we make our decisions on our map. 
  • Obama states
    • Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (175 electoral votes)
    • Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, PA, WI (89 votes)
  • Tossup States … CO, FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH, VA (111 votes)
  • McCain states
    • Lean McCain: GA, MT, NE 02, ND, SD, WV (30 votes)
    • Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (133 votes)
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