POLITICAL observations & opinions

* First Read electoral summary @ 10-6-08

Posted by Lew Weinstein on October 12, 2008

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann

  • Obama At 264: A week after Obama’s poll numbers spiked in battleground states and after McCain’s campaign announced it was retreating from Michigan, Obama has opened up a nearly 100-point electoral-vote lead, according to NBC’s new map. Obama now has a 264-174 advantage over McCain, up from his 212-174 edge last week.
  • The changes are all in Obama’s direction: We’ve moved Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from Toss-up to Lean Obama.
  • Also, every single Toss-up state is now a red state, and we are close to moving another red state — Missouri — to the Toss-up column.
  • But let’s remember: This is where the RACE IS RIGHT NOW, not where we expect the race to be in a month. 
    • Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (157 electoral votes)
    • Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, OR, PA, WA, WI (107 votes)
    • Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, NV, NC, OH, VA (100 votes)
    • Lean McCain: MO, MT (14 votes)
    • Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (160 votes)



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